A couple of years ago, I learned about confirmation bias. Confirmation bias is something I had been practicing (still do!) and didn't even realize it.
From Wikipedia:
Confirmation bias (also called confirmatory bias or myside bias) is a tendency of people to favor information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses.
Around the same time that I learned the term confirmation bias, I began reading a book called The Believing Brain by Michael Shermer. I didn't read the whole things because as usual, I was reading four or five books at a time and this one didn't make it to the finish line. What I gleaned from what I read, though, is that the human brain is set up such that we are given/we form our beliefs first (they are handed to us by our parents, teachers, mentors, experience etc.) and then our brains seek after support for our beliefs. Shermer shows this by citing scientific studies and providing examples of how this works in common situations.
This was backward from what I had believed up to that point. I thought that humans simply learn and grow into their beliefs by trial and error. I also believed in some kind of inner compass that could tell us when we had arrived at truth.
So, let's take an example of the recent elections. Some people lean left and some people lean right. Some people say they are independent. Interestingly, many people who easily fall within the right or left choose news sources that confirm their beliefs. Amazing isn't it? Why would anyone do that? It would seem more rational to find a news source that gives equal time to varying viewpoints. That way a person could make an informed decision based on what's really going on.
But, step back and think about yourself. Which way do you lean politically? Why? Which news source do you listen to/watch? Does it have the same political leanings as yourself? If so, could this be harming you in any way? Could this be harming anyone else you have some influence over?
For myself, I listened to NPR. I've been listening to NPR for many years and I think that they do a very good job of reporting multiple viewpoints (let's face it, there are usually more than just two!) During this last election cycle, I found that I was happy when the news went toward my leanings and upset when it didn't seem to do so. When I pushed myself through those upset feelings though, I could usually see the viewpoint. However, it didn't usually sway me from my positions. To be fair though, I've put a lot of work into my current positions (I have solid positions on very few topics), considering multiple viewpoints, looking at what science has to say etc.
What other areas of life are influenced by this "trick" of the brain? Religion? Economics? How can this be a benefit to us as a species or as an individual? I hope to read more on what neuroscientists are learning about the brain.
If you have any examples of confirmation bias in your experience, I'd love to hear them. If you'd just love to refute confirmation bias, I'd like to hear that too!
Read more in this Scientific American article.
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
Confirmation Bias
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It seems like it's hard to tell when you encounter information whether your emotions are confirmation bias or just the fact that it's pleasant to hear things that you agree with. Sometimes it's not always, "See? I'm right!" but rather, "Yes, I know -- isn't that nice?"
ReplyDeleteI think trial and error are good ways to discover truth, but I still believe in the inner compass, too, as you know.
I love reading about ideas like this! Thank you for sharing what you're learning.
After I posted this, I realized that I believe in an inner compass too. It's one that has evolved along with us. Animals have this compass too. It's based in survival, but elements of it are not. Consider fun. Crows know how to have fun. Having fun takes energy and doesn't further the species reproductively. Still, they do it and so do we!
ReplyDeleteComing to an understanding of just how strong confirmation bias was in my life was one of the most humbling things I have ever done.
ReplyDeleteBeing a researcher and trained to recognize threats to validity, it was really difficult to admit that I had allowed confirmation bias to be such a part of my epistemology.
In particular, I had said things along the lines of "I have to believe. I have had too many experiences within a uniquely Mormon context, such as a mission, or in the temple." However, when I, for the first time, allowed myself to examine those experiences critically, I was able to see that there were purely natural explanations for all of them. I had simply interpreted them as evidence of the truthfulness of the Mormon church because I was so invested in the Mormon church being true.
I then began to be able to make sense of so many other people having "testimonies" of the truthfulness of other religions, such as Islam, Judaism, Buddhism, and so on. They grew up invested in those things being true, and of course many of their experiences occurred within contexts that were unique to their religions.
Looking back on it, how arrogant was I to believe that my experiences in a uniquely Mormon context were more valid and truthful than the experiences of my Protestant, Catholic, or Muslim friends that they had within contexts just as unique to their religions?
Pretty darn arrogant, I have come to conclude. Even if I take the standard line I came to expect at church that of course they would feel the warm fuzzies in their churches because they have some of the truth, but they just don't know what they are missing. Even allowing that is pretty prideful. To make that leap I have to believe that my experiences are definitive, especially when it comes to experiences in the unique context of any my religion as compared to theirs.
It was very humbling to come to the conclusion that my experiences were really nothing special. Just a part of the human experience in which we detect divine intervention where there is nothing more than two events simply occurring together.
Reminds me of the arrogance of thinking that God was looking out for me when I found my lost wallet, ignoring that He was apparently not looking out for the many mothers and fathers praying desperately for food to feed their hungry children in an African famine. Now there's confirmation bias.
Or, to quote a recent CNN news article, the woman who happened to survive a plane crash claiming that God is good because he saved her. I wonder how that felt to the families of all those who died even though they prayed for their family members' safe travels?